The towns along Marin County's waterfront are doing what they can to prepare for what are predicted to be record-high tides this winter. But farther inland, the tiny community of Nicasio has flooding worries of its own, and they say an action 65 years ago by the local water district is to blame for it.
Nicasio Reservoir was built in 1961 and is an important asset of the Marin Municipal Water District. But ever since it was built, it's been having a dampening effect on the town of Nicasio. The town now worries about flooding anytime an "atmospheric river" is forecasted.
"This is output from our flood model that shows what would happen if you were to have a hundred-year flood," said contract hydrologist Andy Collison during a report last month to the district. "Large areas are inundated, including Nicasio Elementary School and also some private residences and businesses down there."
Two of those residences belong to Kasey and Bill Briare and Monica and Mike Seybold. Monica has a picture of her son taken more than 25 years ago. In it, he's standing in the dry creek bed, with a bank towering six feet high behind him.
"And you can see the bank's way up here," she said. "Now, it's even with our property, which is why it comes over so far. We're on 3 acres, a little over 3 acres, and 50 percent of our property floods."
Because of back pressure from the reservoir, sediment has piled up in the creek bed. The district's hydrologist said the level of the ground has risen about 9 feet since the reservoir was built, causing the water to spread out during heavy flows. And now the residents say their properties flood any time there is a large, sustained rainstorm.
The solution seems to be to dredge the shallow spots in the creek to give a deeper, more confined channel for the water to flow through.
"We really thought that they'd be able to take some of the sediment out," said Kasey Briare. "Especially down towards the school, before this monster El Niño that they say is coming, if it comes. But they won't do that. I guess it's a permitting process, and they won't be ready until next year to do it."
The district has responded by removing a lot of the vegetation and debris that has been clogging the flow and undermining the banks, so large trees look like they're about to fall into the creek.
They wouldn't provide an on-camera interview on Monday, but in a written statement said: "While creek conditions during very large storms can vary, this work is an important step in reducing flooding risk and the District is proposing more significant improvements for the long term."
But it's those improvements, namely, dredging the sediment, that the residents have been asking for. And with potentially damaging storms on the way, they don't feel they have time for anything to be considered "long term."
"We asked, could they start the process because this is a dry year that they could actually dig in the creek," said Monica Seybold. "If we get all this rain this year that they're expecting, how long will there be water in the creek? Into the fall next year where they can't remove any gravel? And it will continue to escalate in severity."
In the report to the district, the hydrologist said there used to be regular dredging of the creek when the reservoir was first built. But it appears that stopped sometime in the 1990s.
Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency over potential flooding, which was supposed to cut the red tape for such projects. But there is no plan by Marin Water to remove any sediment this year. So, the residents will be crossing their fingers and hoping that the predictions of flooding won't come true.
